Africa: AIDS and Death Rates

Extract from a letter I sent to IC Publications chief executive Afif Ben Yedder:

Mr Ben Yedder

Facts are indeed facts so how do you substantiate the statements:

"20 million people have already been killed by AIDS"

“40 million people infected with HIV live in developing countries and 70% in sub-saharan Africa”

The FACT is you CAN’T, all you have is BELIEF and your mind is closed to alternative possibilities. Journalists are supposed to exersise their critical faculites in all fields, especially life and death issues like HIV/AIDS. It requires no incisiveness to parrot AIDS industry propaganda and statistics.

Where are the 20 million positive HIV test results for those 20 million dead and where are the additional 28 million (70% of 40 million) positive HIV tests of those currently alive in Africa? Would these “facts” be allowed to go unchallenged in the West? The HIV tests can't prove HIV infection anyway according to the test manufacturers and I can also give you references for this even from AIDS establishment scientists. These AIDS Inc. statistics are ESTIMATES derived from mathematical models using unwarranted (and also racist) assumptions to extrapolate from a small number of unrepresentative samples. These statistics are not facts, they are LUDICROUS!

I can play the statistics game too. If AIDS were really laying waste to Africa then the crude death rate would really be much higher than it is due to the additional major (HIV) conribution to the death toll. According to UN figures, life expectancy in Zambia, for example, between 1980 and 2000 dropped about five years, from 48 to 43, after peaking at 51 in 1985. This places life expectancy at about where it was in 1970, and about six years above where it was in 1955. Just as a reminder, 1955 - 1970 were pre-AIDS. It it is more informative to examine "crude" death rates per thousand:

This is generally a better indicator of the presence of an epidemic, in that life expectancy numbers are often skewed entirely by infant mortality rates, which in turn are often directly related to economic conditions.

The general trend in crude death rate since 1950 is downward with the crude death rate for Zambia, for example, decreasing by 31% from 1950-1955 period to the 1995-2000 (AIDS) period! The crude death rate for Zambia is the same for 1995-2000 as for 1970-1975 (pre-AIDS) and for Zimbabwe it’s lower!

Given the decline in deaths since 1955, relative stability in recent years, and the projections for continuing improvement in the future and assuming that HIV is a deadly virus, there must be some truly stunning counterbalancing developments in health care and/or personal wealth occuring in Africa.

It is conceivable that infant mortality due to poverty (reflected in a decrease in life expectancy) can increase whilst still having data showing overall population growth because of birth rate exceeding death rate. But this scenario is untenable when you factor in the presumed additional major effect of HIV because then we would then expect higher infant mortality and much higher crude death rate.

See also:

AIDS in Africa: Treating Poverty With Toxic Drugs